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Post by andycole on Jun 10, 2008 22:42:33 GMT 2
Well, if Pat's prepared to supply the data, I'm prepared to create the graphs.
Andy.
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Post by Gawaleus on Jun 11, 2008 12:11:39 GMT 2
Im not sure, if there was a missunderstanding... ;-) Andy, when you asked me for the serials, I thought you want to produce some "seriel charts" for finding out more information about the serials. For example why are there EGGs having serials beginning with 0 and others starting with a 2 and so on. Using the serial list for rarity charts is not really reliable. This explains, why there are only a few Black Jack included. Since most of them are sold as mint c10, the serial number is in most auctions not visible. The same goes for many other games. So Brendan, you are right with your question about the rarity of the BJ-60 ;-) Anyway, here are the rarity charts based on all auction data I have: Sorry, this chart is not as nicely done as Andy's ;-) It shows the total for each game, no matter if it's lose, boxed or brand new. I have the percentage of the rarity for each game online: Klick meThere, each game is separated by quality as well (lose, boxed, brand new). Patrick
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Post by mpanayiotakis on Jun 11, 2008 13:24:59 GMT 2
What do the percentages stand for Patrick ? I see that blackjack isn't so common in your chart as well! Michael
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Post by jonwiththewind on Jun 11, 2008 17:58:52 GMT 2
I reckon we should make that chart into a T-Shirt. Could help me pull the ladies! Oh, I'm married. Still, would be nice to have a new G&W T-shirt. Anyone?
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Post by mpanayiotakis on Jun 11, 2008 23:42:31 GMT 2
LOL! That's a biiiiiiig t-shirt Jon!!! ;D
Michael
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Post by Gawaleus on Jun 12, 2008 7:32:07 GMT 2
What do the percentages stand for Patrick ? I see that blackjack isn't so common in your chart as well! 2.63% isn't too bad for the Black Jack :-) The percentage shows how often a game appears on ebay compared to the others. All 60 games together are 100%. Patrick
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Post by andycole on Jun 12, 2008 12:03:05 GMT 2
Hi Pat
My original need for the serial list was to determine production figures. It quickly became apparent that it would be very difficult to use them for that purpose because of the mixing of different games in the same number ranges. The idea of using the data to show numbers of appearances on ebay seemed like a good one at the time, but of course, as you have highlighted, games where no serial number was mentioned, won't be included.
Allowing for this inaccuracy, I think the charts still have some use anyway. I find it strange how your chart differs from mine, though. For example, snoopy tabletop was equal rarest based on your data, now you have it much further up the chart.
Andy
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Post by mpanayiotakis on Jun 12, 2008 17:47:54 GMT 2
I think both charts are interesting. We have a very large number of auctions for our statistics so it doesn't really matter so much that some items aren't included. It doesn't change much.
Michael
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Post by Br3nd4N on Jun 13, 2008 4:01:06 GMT 2
Here somthing for you to consider:
If there are only 10,000 (ish) Specials, and flagman is just as "rare" does this mean the productions numbers could be simmillar?
Using basic common sense says these figures would be a good way to roughly workout sale percentages. i.e. donkey kong sold 165X more than flagman.
It may not be true for the special since it's likly to be looked after better, but for the rest it should hold true.
Assuming flagman sold 20,000 copies, then Dk sales would be 3,294,285 units. assuming flagman is 10,000 units then DK would be 1.64 Mil units.
personally I would be be suprised with figures of this size with DK. Also given the poor uptake and crap gameplay for flagman 15k units is also not a suprise.
In regards to the T-shirt, wont be easy to use that data in a form that people would want to wear.... -B
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Post by pablo on Jun 13, 2008 10:48:10 GMT 2
I agree that Flagman is the rarest game&watch. There are many, many few in Ebay. However lately i have seen many Mario Bros. specials available. Why is that the specials are still more expensive than the Flagman's?
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Post by Gawaleus on Jun 13, 2008 13:17:08 GMT 2
Allowing for this inaccuracy, I think the charts still have some use anyway. I find it strange how your chart differs from mine, though. For example, snoopy tabletop was equal rarest based on your data, now you have it much further up the chart. Yes I agree, it still is very interesting. Regarding the TT Snoopy: In the auctions of the TT Snoopy games, the serial was not visible in most cases. But this goes for the other auctions of TT games as well, so I can't really explain the difference between our charts... Patrick
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Post by jonwiththewind on Jun 13, 2008 13:47:26 GMT 2
re: the t-shirt. Pie Chart surely? (with colour scheme based on the box artwork). Or some sort of psychadelic "spiral of rarity" Could be rather colourful I reckon! Someone must know how?
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Post by mpanayiotakis on Jun 13, 2008 19:01:08 GMT 2
Err.. Andy is your man then Jon! ;D
The figures you quoted Brendan don't seem too far off! Remember that Donkey Kong was a best seller, almost everyone wanted one! But don't mistake production figures with sale figures! Production figures should be higher than that for flagman but it seems that it didn't sell very well. After all, nintendo game&watch games became mainstream items after the release of the first multi-screens and wide screens..
Michael
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Post by andycole on Jun 16, 2008 17:14:18 GMT 2
I think that a figure of less than 20,000 flagmans sold is extremely likely. And of course, we shouldn't rely on the relation between numbers of games on ebay and numbers produced, but I think a figure of 3 million donkey kongs is also quite likely. Jon, what planet are you on and why the fascination with T'shirts? I'll see if I can do a Pie chart anyway, just for the hell of it Andy
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Post by andycole on Jun 20, 2008 10:31:20 GMT 2
Regarding the TT Snoopy: In the auctions of the TT Snoopy games, the serial was not visible in most cases. But this goes for the other auctions of TT games as well, so I can't really explain the difference between our charts... Patrick After noticing that Mike has mentioned Flagman being the rarest game in the 'what have we noticed lately' section, I came back to try to work out why Pat's chart shows flagman as the rarest but mine shows it as 4th rarest, when they are both coming from the same data...... On my chart, there were 27 appearances of Flagman over 2.5 years, and only 20 for SM-73 and YM-901-S, with BF-803 in 3rd at 26 appearances. Think about those figures and you'll realise just how rare these games are! That's less than one appearance a month!! The answer to the discrepancy is this: My figures are based on serial numbers that appeared. Pat's are based on total appearances in auctions. Flagman now shows 28 different serial numbers appearing out of a total of 33 auctions. Snoopy TT shows 22 serials and 138 total auctions, so I think we can safely say that it's the lack of a serial number on an auction that causes this discrepancy, Snoopy is clearly more common. There is one problem I can see with using the total auction appearances, though and that is that you can't account for duplicates, i.e. the number of times that the same unit has been re-sold on ebay. I have a feeling that the other 'ultra-rare' one, YM-901-S is probably actually rarer, because even though there were 20 serials listed out of 48 auctions, I expect that a fairly high proportion of this 48 were re-sales, as collectors cashed-in the high value of this game. What Pat's final graph is very good for, is to determine how easy it is to get hold of a game today, but this isn't necessarily the same as how rare it is, if you get what I mean! Andy.
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