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Post by andycole on May 22, 2008 11:36:11 GMT 2
Hi All
I asked Pat for a copy of his ebay database so that I could have a look at all the serial numbers to see if anything useful could be got from them. On first look I don't think that it will be possible to get release quantities from the numbers as it looks like a lot of the sequences are shared between many games !!
But, the data in there does provide lots of information about the current rarity of all the games. (With Pat's permission) I could provide some graphs or something and post them here. Does anyone have any objections?
Andy
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Post by Grim Tim on May 22, 2008 14:51:21 GMT 2
Not at all Andy, if you don't mind doing the work. Thankyou.
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Post by mpanayiotakis on May 22, 2008 19:05:24 GMT 2
If Patrick doesn't mind why would we ? It should be very interesting!!! Michael
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Post by andycole on May 23, 2008 12:32:47 GMT 2
OK, well I've collated the data and so far have worked out the amount of times each game has appeared on ebay (and been picked up by the database) and created some charts. I'll be away from my computer for the next week probably, as I'll be moving house, so I thought why don't we have a little bit of fun with it? See if you can guess the answers to the following 2 questions: Which are the most common and least common games per series, based on ebay appearances? Which 2 games are the most common and least common throughout the whole range, again, based on ebay appearances? Should be pretty straight forward PM me with your guesses. I'll post the graphs and the results when I'm back online, which will probably be June 2nd. After that I'll have a closer look at the serial number sequences and see if there's anything that can be deduced from them. The first strange thing I have noticed, though, is that some games that have been sold actually share the same serial number, even though they are completely different models. There could be many different reasons for this. Andy
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Post by mpanayiotakis on May 24, 2008 22:42:07 GMT 2
Well, we await the results, this should be interesting!! Michael
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Post by andycole on Jun 3, 2008 11:53:40 GMT 2
I can't believe I had to look on page 2 of the forum for a 'current' thread! Nobody want to make any guesses, then? I'll post the results shortly. Andy.
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Post by jonwiththewind on Jun 3, 2008 13:05:55 GMT 2
Hi Andy,
You obviously haven't heard the "news".
There was a big fire at the company which hosts this forum at the weekend/ Friday ? (someone else can confirm).
As a result this forum (and all other proboards fora) has been "down" for around 3 days.
All data was backed-up (I would have been appalled if it hadn't) but, inevitably, it is taking a few hours to reconstruct the "lost" data.
That'll be the main reason why no-one has answered your questions!! (That, and the fact that it feels a bit like a homework assignment!) lol
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Post by Gawaleus on Jun 3, 2008 17:36:12 GMT 2
Yes, please go ahead! ;-) Today, late in this afternoon, it's the first time that this forum is visible to me since it went offline due the fire. Patrick
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Post by pablo on Jun 4, 2008 10:50:22 GMT 2
Glad to know everything is O.K. with the forum after the "fire accident". We can't live without it Mike.
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Post by andycole on Jun 4, 2008 11:20:55 GMT 2
Er, Jon, the fire only happened on 31st May or something, and I posted the 'question' on 23rd May, so that's at least a week for people to reply! Anyway, nobody has put in any guesses, so I'll post the results later today. OK, without further ado, here are the charts representing the data from the database: Data spans from December 2005 to May 2008 (2 1/2 years) The numbers beneath each chart are the relative values with the least common game always being 1 and the most common being x times as common as the rarest, if you get what I mean! For acutal number of sales recorded, see below: Here is the data for game appearances across the entire range: Game sales relative rarity (high=common) SM-73 20 1.00 YM-901-S 20 1.00 BF-803 26 1.30 FL-02 27 1.35 IP-05G 30 1.50 DC-95 36 1.80 PG-74 37 1.85 MK-96 39 1.95 IP-05P 42 2.10 YM-801 45 2.25 CJ-71 46 2.30 CM-72 47 2.35 MB-108 48 2.40 UD-202 57 2.85 DR-802 67 3.35 EG-26 70 3.50 CJ-93 72 3.60 IP-05 72 3.60 TB-94 78 3.90 MT-03 79 3.95 AC-01 83 4.15 DR-106 91 4.55 PG-92 92 4.60 SM-91 93 4.65 BX-301 94 4.70 LN-08 100 5.00 RC-04 101 5.05 HK-303 102 5.10 BF-107 119 5.95 CN-07 123 6.15 MH-06 125 6.25 BU-201 130 6.50 TF-104 143 7.15 FP-24 154 7.70 AK-302 165 8.25 NH-103 180 9.00 LP-57 181 9.05 MV-64 206 10.30 PB-59 214 10.70 BJ-60 232 11.60 JB-63 250 12.50 BD-62 251 12.55 TL-28 252 12.60 ID-29 257 12.85 DM-53 278 13.90 MC-35 293 14.65 PP-23 294 14.70 TC-58 294 14.70 MG-61 323 16.15 YM-105 396 19.80 FR-27 404 20.20 GH-54 413 20.65 ZL-65 450 22.50 OC-22 461 23.05 OP-51 474 23.70 PR-21 543 27.15 ML-102 555 27.75 DJ-101 650 32.50 SP-30 671 33.55 MW-56 969 48.45 JR-55 1005 50.25 DK-52 1370 68.50 So there we have it! A few surprises in there but not a surprise to see Donkey kong as the most common game! Interesting to see Snoopy tabletop being as uncommon as the special, but I think that result may be influenced by bad descriptions of tabletop games on ebay. Andy.
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Post by Br3nd4N on Jun 5, 2008 13:58:53 GMT 2
now, call me stupid, but how can blackjack be that rare? the market has been flooded with them for the past 2 years? Boxed Snoopy table tops allways go for a fair bit, and yes they are rare, so that does not suprise me.
PG-73 also appears to be rare?
Is the data boxed or not?
-B
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Post by andycole on Jun 5, 2008 14:16:58 GMT 2
I have no idea, I guess that we just perceive Blackjack to be ultra-common because we are sick of the sight of it, when in fact, based upon the number of auctions, it's actually rarer than most of the other multi-screens Check it out yourself. Do a search for each title and count up how many you see Popeye tabletop is also rather hard to find on ebay. Take a look right now, I just did, and you'll hardly find any, live or completed. I think that the tabletops are a lot rarer than people think, I guess that they got broken a lot easier than the little games. Add to that the mis-description factor and it's easy to see how the appearance numbers are so low. The figures are only based on what Pat's search strings pick up. The database doesn't care about boxed or loose, these are any appearance of the game. Andy
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Post by mpanayiotakis on Jun 8, 2008 3:19:33 GMT 2
Andy, that's some great statistics! Thanks for your effort! Since I've been keeping a close eye on game&watch auctions none of the results surprise me and what we perceive as rare nowadays is completely true!
Can you do averages on prices with Pat's data ?
Michael
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Post by andycole on Jun 9, 2008 10:43:13 GMT 2
Pat only supplied the serial number and model number, as I requested, although he obviously has prices as well. Average prices would be pretty misleading as you won't know what percentage are boxed or loose, or the condition.
Andy.
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Post by mpanayiotakis on Jun 9, 2008 14:32:04 GMT 2
You're right but you can create all sorts of interesting statistics with prices (highest priced games, lowest priced games) and average prices would still be interesting regardless because we have lots and lots of data. A graph displaying average prices including highest and lowest price for each game would be interesting!
Michael
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